In the early hours of Easter Monday, April 21, Pope Francis passed away, marking the end of a historic papacy that began with his election in 2013. His death has left a significant void in the Catholic Church, one he filled with humility, reform, and a deep commitment to the marginalized for over a decade.
Following his passing, the Vatican is expected to initiate a conclave—a solemn assembly of cardinals tasked with electing the next pope—within the next 15 to 20 days.
This window of time allows for the traditional funeral rites and the observance of the novemdiales, a nine-day period of official mourning. It also provides adequate time for cardinals from all over the world to make their way to Vatican City to participate in the sacred process.
The election itself will take place behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel. There, the College of Cardinals—specifically those under the age of 80—will cast their votes in secret ballots.
A two-thirds majority is required to elect the new Pope. If this consensus is not reached in the initial rounds, voting will continue until a successful candidate emerges. The selection process will be guided by a blend of theological insight, Church tradition, and subtle political considerations.
Top Contenders to Become the 267th Pope
As speculation mounts, several high-profile names have emerged as leading contenders, each with unique credentials and global support. Notably, this election could bring the first African or Asian pope in modern history.
Cardinal Peter Kwadwo Appiah Turkson (Ghana)
From humble beginnings in a small African town, Cardinal Peter Turkson has gone on to great things in the Church, making him a contender to become the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
He combines a long pastoral background of tending to congregations in Ghana with hands-on experience of leading several Vatican offices, as well as strong communication skills.
The fact he comes from one of the most dynamic regions for the Church, which is struggling against the forces of secularism in its European heartlands, should also bolster his standing.
The fourth son in a family of 10 children, Turkson was born in Wassaw Nsuta, in what was then called the Gold Coast in the British Empire. His father worked in a nearby mine and doubled as a carpenter while his mother sold vegetables in the market.
He studied at seminaries in Ghana and New York, was ordained in 1975, and then taught in his former Ghanaian seminary and did advanced Biblical studies in Rome.
Pope John Paul II appointed him archbishop of Cape Coast in 1992 and 11 years later made him the first cardinal in the history of the West African state.
Promotions continued under John Paul’s successor, Benedict, who brought him to the Vatican in 2009 and made him the head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace – the body that promotes social justice, human rights and world peace.
In that role, he was one of the pope’s closest advisors on issues such as climate change and drew much attention by attending conferences such as the Davos economic forum.
Francis merged Turkson’s department in 2016 with three other offices, leading to what some saw as a power struggle between him and another cardinal.
Turkson resigned from that role in 2021 and was appointed to head two pontifical academies on sciences and social sciences.
In 2023 he told the BBC he prayed “against” the possibility that he would be elected pope but some of his detractors said that given his media appearances it appeared he was campaigning for the job.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Leading the betting markets with the most favorable odds is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. Aged 67, he is widely seen as a natural successor to Pope Francis, especially for his inclusive vision and evangelistic spirit.
A former Archbishop of Manila and currently a senior official within the Vatican, Tagle is known for his humility, communication skills, and theological insight.
His deep alignment with Francis’s progressive agenda—particularly regarding compassion, inclusion, and outreach—has earned him the affectionate nickname “the Asian Pope Francis.”
His election would not only represent a continuation of Pope Francis’ reforms but also reflect the growing strength of the Catholic Church in Asia.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State, brings considerable diplomatic and administrative experience to the race. At 70, he has served as one of the most influential figures in the Holy See since 2013.
His responsibilities have extended far beyond theological matters, often involving him in complex international negotiations, including engagements with China and various governments in the Middle East.
Parolin’s candidacy is bolstered by his reputation as a moderate and pragmatic leader who could continue Francis’ legacy while maintaining institutional stability.
His deep knowledge of the Church’s internal workings and external relations makes him a strong contender for those seeking continuity with competent governance.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)
Representing Central Europe, 72-year-old Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary is known for his scholarly expertise in canon law and his conservative theological stance.
As a former head of the Council of European Bishops, he has championed traditional Catholic values and doctrine.
Erdő’s potential election would likely signal a shift back toward a more conservative and centralized church structure, contrasting with the more progressive tone of Francis’ papacy. His candidacy appeals to members of the Church who seek a revival of orthodoxy and liturgical tradition.
Cardinal Angelo Scola (Italy) – Odds: 8:1
At 82, Cardinal Angelo Scola is the oldest among the frontrunners and a seasoned theologian with a rich academic and ecclesiastical background.
A former Archbishop of Milan, Scola was considered a favorite in the 2013 conclave before ultimately losing to Pope Francis.
His conservative stance, coupled with his advanced age, makes his candidacy less likely. However, his deep-rooted knowledge of Catholic doctrine and long-standing service to the Church continue to earn him respect among more traditionalist cardinals.
Should the conclave seek a transitional figure with experience and doctrinal clarity, Scola might yet emerge as a surprise choice.
